Best of Richard Russell
June 19, 2006

In my generation, people despised debt and avoided it like the plague. If they had any debt, it was in a mortgage, but then they couldn't wait to pay that "damned mortgage" off. They would give "mortgage parties" to celebrate when their mortgage was finally paid off. Credit cards? Who ever heard of a credit card?

I've tried to teach my own kids to save. I've drilled into their heads the power of saving and compounding. I've shown them how saving $75 or $100 a month and compounding their savings can bring in important income over the years. But there's something in the air, something in the generational thing that makes the kids and the boomers of today disdain savings. "Why save? How bad can things get? Besides, why should we worry, at worst the government will come up with something? And we have to live, don't we?"

And then I think, what about savings? How safe are our savings? The government takes away the purchasing power of anything we save through inflation. The government also taxes what we earn. And when we die the government taxes a certain amount of what's left with the "death tax." Maybe, just maybe -- the government has broken people's desire to save. You might as well spend it now; have a good time with it now, because the government will dig its claws into whatever you earn and whatever you manage to save.

Personally, I think it's ominous, and it's going to send this nation into a spiral of decline. The Chinese and most Asians are big savers. The Chinese save a huge 23% of what they earn, while Americans continue to go deeper into debt. The final outcome has to be a disaster for this country. After all, we live in a global, competitive world. I don't see how 1.2 billion people that save cannot come out ahead of 190 million people that continue to spend on the good life, all the while going deeper and deeper into debt.

The basis for all the US prosperity of the last five years has been the phenomenal rise in home prices. Remember, 69% of all American families own their own home (that is, if you can call it "owned" if you still have a mortgage). Home prices have surged month after month, year after year, particularly on the two heavily populated coasts.

The Mother of all Economic Problems
Copyright @ August 2006 Paul Mladjenovic. All rights reserved.

Before I address the issue of what is the "Mother of all Economic Problems", let`s first take a look at some sample news headlines:

I am sure that you have seen these recent headlines (or something similar). They seem like different issues with different concerns and apparently different causes. Many look at these as a batch of disconnected economic issues and problems that are part and parcel of a modern, complex society. The list is not even complete. They are part of "the problems of Life" along with drugs, pollution, crime, parking tickets, pay toilets, etc. Right?

Wrong. Very Wrong. All of these economic problems do have the same root cause (the "mother"). This mother either caused the problem directly or took a relatively manageable or minor issue and turned it into a major economic problem. The mother of all economic problems is government. We could make it sound studious and blame "excessive" government but government by its very nature is excessive and problematic. I don`t want to expand the point to include matters such as war, terrorism, etc. I believe that government plays a necessary part in defending us in a dangerous world. Therefore, I will try to limit my comments to the general realm of economics. Let`s take a closer look.

Inflation & the US dollar

In recent decades, consumers and TV pundits have bemoaned "the cost of living". We here about daily expenses for hard-working folks keep rising and that wages are not keeping up with inflation. It wasn`t that long ago that the hand-wringing went on and on about how there are fewer and fewer "one-income" households. Politicians wax on pompously about how families need "two incomes now to afford what a single income used to provide". Inflation is simply government printing too many dollars as they chase the same basket of goods and services. Yes, there is a more precise/formal definition but that should suffice.

The bottom line is that managing the currency (printing dollars) is the government`s responsibility. The government has power over the currency and we as participants in the US economy have little choice since we are forced to use this currency for most of our daily transactions. But it stands to reason that the more you produce of something, the less each unit is worth. "Inflating" the currency doesn`t mean that the cost of goods and services go up; it`s that the value of each dollar keeps shrinking because you produce too many dollars. All things being equal, If I bought something last year for $1 and this year it costs me $2, it isn`t because that item doubled in value; it`s because the value of my money went down.

The value of the US dollar since the creation of the Federal Reserve System (effectively America`s central bank; a government entity) in 1913 has fallen by nearly 99%. Inflation is basically a hidden tax since you end up paying more without getting more. Who is causing this massive inflation? Who is debauching the value of our currency? Government?

Unemployment

Invariably when you hear about a sub-par economy, the conversation turns to jobs. When you see the protestors and commentators on TV you will probably hear the clarion call for "more jobs!" I even remember hearing one clueless "economist" on TV say "we need less corporate profit and more jobs" which is akin to saying "we need less oxygen and more breathing". The ultimate engine of job creation is profit (entrepreneurs & private corporations) while the leading cause of job destruction is government. Government increases the costs and risks of employment. You can be sure that if a job is offered to you with a salary of $50,000, the cost of hiring & keeping you employed is at least 40% higher when you factor in payroll taxes (federal, state & local) along with government mandated costs (licenses, permits, paperwork, etc.) and risks (such as employee lawsuits). As the cost of hiring legal citizen`s increases, employers are forced to find alternatives that are affordable.

The end result is cost-cutting measures such as "downsizing" and ‘outsourcing". Remember that these things are not problems; they are symptoms. Places like India and Mexico benefit from these cost-cutting measures. Companies get the blame but the bulk of the responsibility rests squarely with the government.

"The two-wage earner family"

One of the ongoing laments in recent decades is how America went from being a place where a family can be supported by a single wage-earner to where now it takes two wage-earners to cover the expenses of running the household. Why is that? Two primary reasons cause the necessity of the "two-wage earner family"-- inflation and taxes. Who causes inflation and taxes? Government?

Poverty

Poverty has always been a big problem for our world. Every attempt to wipe out poverty invariably aggravated the problem. The first thing that people say is "the government must do something! We need to take more resources from some well-heeled sector and transfer it to the poor. Many people believe that you can wipe out poverty by a simple forced transfer of money through taxation, welfare and similar government initiatives. In one form or another that has been the most typical route for our world over the centuries. Yet, poverty persists.

The primary reason is that government has always done more harm than good for "the poor." It is no coincidence that the highest rates of poverty are always in countries or areas that have a high concentration of government! Look at the poorest countries in the world. What is the most powerful common denominator in those poverty-stricken countries? These countries are usually Marxist, communist, fascist or socialist. The common thread through these destructive ideologies is that they are very top-heavy in government. The bottom line is that more government means more poverty. Look at the United States during the 1930s. We called it "the Great Depression" but really it should have called "America`s last great socialist experiment". Roosevelt`s "New Deal" should have been called "FDR`s Raw Deal". The lesson: more government means more poverty.

Housing bubble

The housing bubble that recently popped was not a market-driven event. The artificial rise in housing prices and the pain associated with the now-evident dropping prices (foreclosures, mortgage problems, etc.) show us a major crisis that was created by the government. How? First see the cause of the housing markets artificial rise during the 2000-2005 periods. What happened? Several key government-driven events occurred:

1. Money supply & credit (controlled by government) were expanded exponentially
2. Interest rates (controlled by government) were lowered drastically
3. Lending standards were lowered to allow almost anyone to get a mortgage
4. Bankruptcy laws were very lenient (made less lenient in October 2005)
5. Government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) bought mortgages from banks

This combination of factors took a bull market in real estate and turned it into an overblown bubble that had to pop. The government runs the printing presses and it sets the interest rates. To increase home ownership, the "benevolent" hand of government lowered lending standards to the point that many people that had no business buying a property bought very easily. Banks had no problem giving John Q. Public a huge mortgage at low interest rates on over-priced property since they were not ultimately on the hook for the money. The banks could make their money at the closing (points, etc.) and immediately sell the mortgage to GSEs such as the Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA) and be rid of the risk of carrying these vulnerable, sub-prime loans. FNMA bought mortgages with a total worth in excess of $2 trillion in the past six years. All these factors contributed to a huge housing bubble with hidden yet unavoidable problems that are now coming to the surface.

As you can see, government involvement in the housing industry drastically warped supply and demand and now you an ugly situation unfolding. More and more homeowners are having trouble keeping up with their mortgages. Homebuilders are now struggling. Realtors and mortgage companies are shrinking their staffs. Foreclosures are skyrocketing. Millions are now at risk. The great economist Ludwig von Mises (see www.mises.org) observed that artificial booms fuelled by credit and currency expansion are always followed by inevitable busts. To add insult to injury, local governments across the country raised property taxes to record levels causing further headaches for those seeking to hold onto their homes. The aftermath is now clear; millions are suffering due to the unfolding bust in the housing bubble.

Illegal Immigration

One of the most controversial issues lately is illegal immigration. The economic implications are great. We have somewhere between 12-20 million illegal immigrants in the U.S. This is causing great problems for us in areas such as social services, employment, crime, etc. Why is it such a controversial crisis?

Ask yourself a simple question; "Who is in charge of securing our border?" The answer is simple. Government. Even with something so obvious and so elemental (securing a defined border) the government is an abject failure. This means increased costs (taxes, etc.) and risks (job loss, crime, etc.) for us. But really, there are two culprits here. The U.S. government is the obvious one but we must also acknowledge the Mexican government as well. Mexico`s government is nearly socialist and over the years it has wreaked havoc on its own economy. This is now obvious. After all, what is the reason most often cited for why illegal immigrants cross our border? "They come seeking economic opportunity". The lesson here is clear: There are more economic opportunities in countries that are freer (less government) than there are in countries that are less free or not free at all (more government). When will we learn this lesson?

High costs of gas & energy

Oil and gas cost much more due to 2 causes; inflation and supply & demand. Inflation is a government creation as you know by now. Supply & demand data shows some interesting stuff:

1. 90% of the world`s oil reserves are controlled by government entities (national oil companies such as Aramco). Private companies such as Exxon Mobil only control 10% of the world`s oil reserves.
2. Aside from the cost of oil itself, the next biggest part of the cost is taxes. People rail about private oil company profits (The average net profit for a company is 9 cents on the dollar) yet taxes dwarf that figure. Taxes embedded in the price of gasoline, for example, range from 24-52 cents on the dollar (depending on what state, etc.).
3. We get gasoline from refined oil. Yet we didn`t build a single oil & gas refinery in the United States during the past 25 years due to government regulations, mandates and outright bans. These restrictions greatly limited the supply of gasoline as consumer &industrial demand continued to soar.

There are actually more reasons than this but you get the point. In this segment, I give government a slight "pass" since Peak Oil is a major problem facing us (Peak Oil is the cornerstone of the supply & demand issues facing the energy market).  However, government in recent decades made it much more difficult for us to become energy independent and it certainly played a major part in the skyrocketing energy costs especially in this decade.

Eminent domain abuse

This is a terrible problem that I find especially disgusting. The Supreme Court decision from the summer of 2005 unleashed a nightmare for property owners across the country. Basically, eminent domain means that the government can take your property and you can`t do a damn thing about it. This is "legalized plunder" in its raw form. Yes, the government does "compensate" you (the government decides how much) but it is generally a "take it or leave it" proposition. This is a virulent and frightening attack on our private property rights. No one should be "forced" to relinquish his or her property. Government should exist to protect our rights, not to violate them.

Eminent domain is a hideous concept that comes with many additional problems associated with it. What if you blow the whistle on local government corruption? The risk could be that local officials would use government power to take your home or business as retribution. In other words, eminent domain could be used as a chilling way to affect other important rights such as the right to public expression as a concerned citizen. Please take the time to address this since it will affect you or someone you know about. Some great websites that are fighting eminent domain abuse are www.castlecoalition.org and www.freestarmedia.com. I hope that you will consider giving them your support since they are doing great work on behalf of property owners everywhere in our great country.

Pension & Social Security problems

For a very long time, we have come to the idea that a pension from our company or government agency is a "given". You work long enough at a job; you`ll get something later on for your retirement. You probably even heard of agencies there to protect your retirement benefits such as the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC). This agency was set up by the government to be a safety net that bailed out failing private pension plans. The PBGC would get the funding for this mission from taxpayers.

1. Government regulations have made pensions more costly so more and more employers are dropping them.
2. A private pension you get will be overcome by current & future inflation.
3. Most government pensions are under-funded so more taxes will be exacted on you and I to cover the shortfall.

Besides private pension plans, you have to also consider the issue of Social Security. We are forced to pay for Social Security with growing social security taxes. Since people are living longer than ever before, more money will be necessary to cover current and future retirees. Future un-funded Social Security liabilities are huge and growing faster than our economy. Depending on whose data you trust, total liabilities during 2010-2025 will run anywhere from $32-to-$50 trillion. By everyone`s admission, this debt will grow higher with each passing year. This is a staggering sum that dwarfs our country`s Gross Domestic Product. How are we going to pay this massive debt?

The first point to keep in mind is that government runs Social Security. The second is that we are forced to pay for it and forced to participate. If we were allowed to keep this money and save/ invest it as we see fit, we could do much better. Even if the alternative is a mandatory IRA where the funds are placed in savings accounts, you would still do better than the current system. Find out more about this important issue at websites such as www.socialsecurity.org.

One of the biggest issues with these programs is the concept of "moral hazard". Moral hazard is a critical issue that is rarely mentioned in economic news. It is the idea that people will behave less responsibly with their money or resources based on flawed data or expectations. Social Security is a good example of moral hazard. If everyone gets the idea that they have a guaranteed retirement, they will be much less careful about their financial planning duties. They will spend more since they are convinced that "Social Security will be there for me". They will be less apt to be diligent savers and investors. This may very well be the greatest flaw regarding Social Security as millions of future retirees will be shocked by the financial shortfalls facing them at retirement. Keep in mind that part of that shortfall is the fact that inflation grows faster than any benefit increases that will be given to payees.

The year 2008 will start the time bomb ticking since it is when the first wave of baby boomers starts drawing from Social Security funds for their monthly living expenses. How many millions right now are not saving & investing to cover their future retirement shortfalls?

Medicare

And don`t forget the healthcare costs that await us. Many of us are not saving for the coming healthcare costs associated with our twilight years since it is assumed that "government will take care of our medical costs through Medicare & Medicaid". The problem is that the potential Medicare costs will be greater than Social Security; it will exceed $50 trillion. What will happen to retirees when the inevitable shortfall hits? Will taxes skyrocket while services plummet? Moral hazard soon becomes a tremendous financial & health hazard. The government has unwittingly created this scenario and current politicians will not make any hard choices now to alleviate future difficulties. More likely, they will "make reforms" (this is code for "make some cosmetic changes now, avoid hard solutions and postpone the problem for future politicians to deal with it").

Healthcare

Healthcare has been a hot political topic in recent years. It is related to the previous issue. Everyone comments about the costs & availability of quality healthcare. The complaints about expensive drug costs, HMOs, medical insurance, etc. continue and get louder during election years. Invariably the call is issued for "government to do something about it". The phrase "healthcare crisis" ends up in the headlines. Yet, think about this: in 1964, government involvement in the healthcare industry was minimal yet there was not a single headline in any major newspaper screaming about a healthcare crisis. That year healthcare was widely available and affordable. That year you would be hard-pressed to find a single major headline with the words "healthcare crisis" in it.

In 1965, Government intervention started with the creation of Medicare. This was the beginning of the end as government intervention and involvement grew and grew. Slowly, the healthcare industry became more bureaucratic and more problematic. As government intervention grew more pronounced, the healthcare crisis emerged.

Now there are many that say "the problems are too difficult to overcome. We need nationalized healthcare". Keep in mind that "nationalizing an industry" is the same as "bureaucratizing an industry". Ultimately, it ends up meaning "destroying an industry".

Critics of American healthcare usually say that Canada`s healthcare system is the better way. Unfortunately, that system is in crisis and headed for the emergency room. History has shown us conclusively that every government-run healthcare system ended in collapse. The bottom line is that the primary problem with healthcare is government.

Government Misinformation

Many people, organizations and entire industries must rely on government data to formulate decisions regarding the current and future use of resources such as people, assets & money. If the data is faulty, then bad decisions with subsequently bad results occur. Much of the data that the government provides is either flawed by accident or actually quite purposeful. Even Alan Greenspan, during his rein as the head of the Federal Reserve, wouldn`t rely solely on government data. He usually turned to private sources to gain a more accurate picture of the economy`s condition.

A good example of government misinformation is the "Consumer Price Index" (CPI). It is supposed to be the official measure of inflation. They make a reference to something called the "core rate of inflation" which is inflation with food & energy costs factored out. This drives me crazy. How can you have a true rate of inflation without factoring in the price of food & energy? Everybody eats and everybody uses energy; you can`t ignore these costs since they are among the most necessary in our day-to-day activities. Why leave them out? There are reasons for it. First, when you hear "the core rate is only 2%" it sounds a lot better than reality (the realistic rate of inflation is around 8%). The media then reports this to the public. People then say "hurray! Inflation is under control." The difference between 2% and 8% is huge. The impact on people`s finances over time would be enormous. People and organizations would obviously plan & behave much differently under one rate versus the other. They would definitely change their buying, saving & investing habits. Wouldn`t you? Under an 8% inflation rate, many more people would be apt to invest in hard assets such as gold and silver and less in paper assets (such as bonds and bank accounts, etc.).

Secondly, changing the way inflation is calculated affects other important data that we rely on. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a case in point. The GDP is looked at as a measure of how well our overall economy is growing since it supposedly tracks the country`s economic output. Keep in mind that to calculate the GDP growth rate, you would have to factor out the inflation rate. How would that affect the reported GDP rate? Well, if the pre-inflation GDP rate is 5% and the inflation rate is 2%, then we say we have a real GDP growth rate of 3% (5 minus 2). The announcements in the media would then report "economy grows by 3%" and everyone says "gee! That`s great." But they play games with the "core rate". If they subtracted 8%, then the GDP would be a NEGATIVE 3%; in other words, the economy would be shrinking instead of growing. Does anyone want to report a shrinking economy in an election year? If everyone thought that the economy was shrinking instead of growing, would they change their behavior? Again, of course they would. They would probably also change their voting habit as well.

This wretched and flawed data reportage (be it accidental or purposeful) radically changes the investment decisions that millions of people make. It radically changes what guidance and advice investors and consumers get from their advisors and financial institutions. It also turns many potentially good decisions into losing decisions. For all those politicians and bureaucrats within the sound of my harried voice; please . PLEASE if you can`t make a materially positive impact on the economy then at the very least give us some reasonably reliable data so that we can make better economic decisions for ourselves and our loved ones. Can you at least do THAT?!

To find out more about shaky and dubious government data and statistics, check out a great website by John Williams at www.shadowstats.com. He makes an interesting observation that had we stuck to the old (more reliable) ways of reporting data, the inflation rate would be nearly 8% and the unemployment rate would be 12%!

Identity Theft & Privacy

Identity theft has been one of the fastest growing problems our society has ever faced. In this time (the "information age") we have to be more diligent about our privacy. There are many out there trying to take advantage of you by way of your private information. Yet the greatest invader of your privacy is the government. No one demands more information about you than the government and it uses this information to track you, your health and your financial affairs. We are legally obligated to provide tremendous amounts of information through endless paperwork and reporting to numerous agencies. A lot of the information that we provide to private sources (doctors, credit card companies, etc.) is because of government rules, regulations & mandates. This means more abuse for innocent people not only from government agencies ("legal abuse") but from criminals and other private invaders ("illegal abuse"). 

Need I say more? GOVERNMENT IS THE PROBLEM. Someone may ask "Paul, why are you so negative about the government?" Believe me that I am very pro-government when it comes to defending this country and its` citizens from attack (both external and internal). However

I have been in business for over 25 years and have been constantly analyzing the economy and financial markets for the sake of thousands of my clients and students. I kept investigating economic problems and issues from a "cause and effect" perspective. I continuously asked myself "why" and "how" regarding the various economic issues of the day, day-in and day-out for over 2 ½ decades. I analyzed not only the modern American economy but also about economics stretched across 5,000 years of human history and across the world. Virtually every major man-made economic problem that affected an entire community or nation led back to one cause the government.

Why is government the cause of so much suffering?

Remember that government is an instrument of force. Government force manifests itself in obvious and no-so-obvious ways. Government force takes the form of war or the form of taxes and regulations. Government always acts through confiscation, coercion or control. Because government acts on a macro-basis, it can affect an entire industry, sector or country. Government actions affect a city, county, state, nation, continent or even the world. People that run government (politicians and bureaucrats) have tremendous power and yet there is remarkably little responsibility or consequence in using or misusing this power.

Look at the U.S. congress for example. It can spend (waste?) trillions of taxpayer dollars and create all sorts of problematic legislation but there is no consequence for any congressman that votes idiotically on an important bill. In fact, stupidity and profligacy are rewarded!  As a congressman, you could vote the wrong way on every bill that is presented and you will still get all the perks of power along with very lucrative retirement benefits. Outrageous! There are more reasons but I don`t have the space right now to include everything.

What we need to do as responsible Americans:

The greatest single step that we as Americans can do can be boiled down to a single, simple statement:

SHRINK GOVERNMENT AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. That means that we must

1. Reduce taxes at all levels government (federal, state, county & local)
2. Reduce regulations at all levels of government
3. Reduce government spending at all levels of government
4. Abolish the federal reserve (government mismanagement of our currency)
5. Take as much personal responsibility for our lives (retirement, health, etc.)

I realize that some of you (many?) may see this as too radical. The only reason that it is radical because the size, scope & reach of government has grown enormously since the Great Depression. At this point, "tweaking" the problem is much like re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. The economic challenges are growing relentlessly as you are reading this.

Here are some suggestions & resources for you:

Understand economics to make better financial & business decisions. That means learning about how the economy works. See great websites such as

• The Mises Institute ( www.mises.org)
• Free Market News Network (www.fmnn.com)
• Financial Sense ( www.financialsense.com)
• Foundation for Economic Education (www.fee.org)

Support organizations that will help you & the country deal with government such as:

• The Institute for Justice (www.ij.org)
• Downsize DC (www.downsizedc.org)
• Center for Smaller Government (www.centerforsmallergovernment.com)
• The Future of Freedom Foundation (www.fff.org)

Become as self-sufficient as possible.

• Reduce your debt as much as possible
• Start a home-based business
• Cut your expenses & invest as much as possible
• Don`t become dependent on Social Security, etc.
• Accumulate some gold & silver (as inflation rises)

Stay informed. Feel free to get a free subscription to my email newsletter Prosperity Alert at www.supermoneylinks.com. You`ll get some solid information to help you avoid economic problems and increase your prosperity.

Vote for smaller government & more freedom.

If you are serious about increasing your freedom & prosperity (shrinking government!) then you should consider voting for the libertarian party. The democrats & republicans will not shrink the government. Once you get past their rhetoric, you really see two parties fighting over who will grow it more. Remember the following points about politics:

Government is Frankenstein`s monster.

Politics is the competition over who will become
Dr. Frankenstein.

Only the libertarians are out to unplug the monster. Find out more about the Libertarian Party at www.lp.org. No, you don`t have to agree with every single point they make (I don`t). But libertarians are the most serious about shrinking rampant government.

Manage your taxes. Taxes you pay (both directly as a taxpayer and indirectly as a consumer) are greater than any other expense in your budget. Learn more about decreasing your personal taxes. Reducing your taxes isn`t just about keeping more money in your pocket. It also means less money that is handled and misused by the government. Find out more at sources such as www.taxcutcentral.com and the National Taxpayers Union (www.ntu.org).

You must understand why I point out the problems about excessive government. I was born in a communist country (The former socialist republic of Yugoslavia). We must shrink government as soon as possible since the current data & evidence suggests that the current economic climate could very easily produce a second (and more severe) depression.

Please don`t misunderstand me. I don`t believe that government is all bad. Government is very necessary in some extremely important functions for our society. It is the most appropriate entity for protecting and defending us from external & internal attack. I pray that our government maintains a very strong national defense especially in this hostile and dangerous world. Unlike other critics, I will keep cheering our military as they face-off against those terrorist thugs in the world that wouldn`t think twice about killing us and those we love. In addition, government can be the most convenient way to maintain our judicial system and a few other projects for safeguarding the populace. However, government is best limited to these missions and nothing more. Unfortunately, it crossed the line during the early 20<sup>th</sup> century (starting with FDR`s New Deal) and has relentlessly grown since then. This is wrong and we will pay the price unless we can shrink this ubiquitous, bureaucratic & intrusive leviathan.

If we want to build a more peaceful and prosperous world, we need more freedom and less government. For society, that is probably history`s greatest lesson. When will we learn it?

Bio: Paul Mladjenovic edits the financial & business newsletter Prosperity Alert at www.supermoneylinks.com. He is also a national seminar leader and the author of books such as Stock Investing for Dummies and Zero-Cost Marketing.

Spotlight on Aaron Russo`s Movie

IMPORTANT NOTE: In light of the above article, I strongly encourage all my readers to visit Aaron Russo`s website www.freedomtofascism.com. Russo recently completed one of the most important films of our time entitled "America: Freedom to Fascism". Go to his website for more details. In my view, Russo`s efforts with this ground-breaking movie deserve our society`s attention and support.

A Special Event by Paul Mladjenovic on 09/24/06

Building wealth and financial security is not always easy. Especially in today`s economy. However, you can do something about it. You can make more money and have fun doing it. Over the past 20+ years, thousands of students have learned how to make more money through Paul`s landmark seminar, "Home Business Goldmine".  Here`s the course description:

Home Business Goldmine
101 Creative Ways to Earn Extra Money

Do you want another source of income without leaving your job? Are you worried about your job or your retirement? Is making more money a major concern for you? DO you want to do more to create greater financial security? Why not use techniques and strategies that have made many people millionaires? No matter whom you are or what you are currently doing, you can turn your spare time and energy into money. Find out how to start and operate from home, part-time or full-time. You do not a lot of money to get started, just a desire to succeed. Learn the right approach complete with how-to and where-to information. You will learn about specific ways to earn money in hot areas such as factoring, brokering, Internet marketing, wellness, credit, real estate, finder fees, liquidating, etc. Imagine earning $50,000 by bringing money to businesses! Or find over 2,000 sources of wholesale products to earn big re-sale profits without financing or carrying an inventory. You will find out about ways to make money from the comfort of home using the Internet. You can even earn big fees just by doing simple research at the library or public records. This information-packed course will also include no-cost and low-cost marketing strategies as well as how your home business could save you thousands on taxes! The powerful time-tested and proven strategies and resources provided in this seminar have been used to make a fortune by thousands of Paul`s students over the past quarter century. Find out in just one afternoon. You can realistically start a low-risk, high-potential journey to financial security.

Free bonus presentation: "The Trillion Dollar Opportunity". This informative 20-minute session will spotlight the trillion-dollar health & wellness sector by a full-time pro. Get some solid tips and strategies on a booming area for home businesses. The featured speaker, Dennis Bollier, will share his insights on how to make money in this field as well as how to avoid the pitfalls. Imagine making great money by helping people feel better and enjoying life more! Dennis will even reveal some simple yet powerful secrets on longevity and wellness that you can employ immediately. This can save you thousands on healthcare costs in the coming years.

Besides an information-packed seminar, you`ll also get the following free bonuses:

• A CD with business plan software & resources to help start your home business
• A free 30-minute telephone consultation. Speak with either Paul or Dennis regarding your personal questions on business start-up, etc.
• A no-risk, no-cost program to make money with Paul`s business. You`ll see easy ways to make money by helping others prosper!

Important note: The event will be limited to 20 attendees so register early. For more information or to register, contact Paul directly at 201-585-0239 or email paul@mladjenovic.com. Yes the seating is limited and the time will pass quickly. Let me know soon!

Real Estate`s Crash Landing
by Peter Schiff
Euro Pacific Capital
August 25, 2006

During the unprecedented run up in housing prices over the last decade, most economists and real estate professionals firmly declared that the market would always move higher. When the recent cooling dashed those hopes, many reluctantly fell back to the "soft landing" hypothesis, which predicts that price appreciation will return to historically average rates. However the latest housing data, particularly this week`s figures on new and existing home sales, have made these overly rosy assumptions untenable. The "hard landing" scenario, which envisions real estate prices moving sideways, or actually posting moderate declines, is finally gaining broader credence. But, even this forecast will prove overly optimistic. The real estate market will not land soft or hard, it will crash and burn. Those who did not have the foresight to bail out may be faced with a distinct shortage of parachutes. 

The glut of homes on the market, the highest level since 1993, doesn`t even begin to tell the story. Homes were far more affordable back in 1993 than they are today, and there were significantly more renters (who had not yet entered the market) who could potentially buy them. Today, home affordability is at an all time low, and just about anybody who could buy one already has. For those who think the inventory of unsold homes is high now, you isn`t seen nothing yet.

Consider these factors. There are a record number of new homes currently under construction. Real estate speculators who bought solely on the anticipation of rising prices will likely try to unload their properties now that the market has turned. With higher short-term interest rates, those who financed with ARMs will also try to sell their homes to get out from under mortgage payments they can no longer afford to make. A record number of Americans, who bought second homes, or vacation properties, will likely reassess the wisdom of those purchases, and put these properties back on the market as well. Finally, homeowners who watched the values of their homes rise for years, but were reluctant to sell them for fear of missing out on even bigger gains, will rush to cash in before all that paper profit disappears.

This raises two pertinent questions. First, where will all the buyers come from to absorb this supply and second, at what terms will lenders be willing to finance these purchases? When prices were raising everyone wanted to buy, no one wanted to sell, and lenders were willing to finance just about any transaction. As a result, there was a "shortage" of homes for sale, a surplus of buyers, and prices rose accordingly. As prices begin to decline, few will want to buy, many will want to sell, and gun-shy lenders will be reluctant to finance all but the most secure transaction. As a result, the "shortage" will become a glut, and prices will collapse. 

The glut of homes on the market indicates just how overpriced real estate has become. By next year just about every house in America would be for sale if the owners thought they could sell at today`s prices. It is impossible to clear the market at current price levels. The only solution is for prices to plunge. Lower prices will result in fewer homeowners wanting to sell, more potential homebuyers able to buy, and lenders willing to finance the purchases. 

Don`t wait for real estate`s crash to take the U.S. economy, and your portfolio down with it. Protect your wealth and preserve you purchasing power before it`s too late. Discover the best way to buy gold at www.goldyoucanfold.com , download my free research report on the powerful case for investing in foreign equities available at www.researchreportone.com , and subscribe to my free, on-line investment newsletter at http://www.europac.net/newsletter/newsletter.asp

For those of you who feel my forecast sounds a bit extreme re-read the following real estate commentaries posted on my web site (dating back to August 2003). Most were written at a time when the bubble was still inflating and just about everyone denied it even existed. Since everything I predicted is now coming to pass, there is very little reason doubt me now.

The Paradox of Housing
June 23, 2006
http://www.europac.net/archives.asp?year=2006&qtr=2 

Not Your Father`s Housing Market
April 21, 2006
http://www.europac.net/archives.asp?year=2006&qtr=2 

Too Big to Burst
February 24, 2006
http://www.europac.net/archives.asp?year=2006&qtr=1

With Real Estate, This Time it really is Different
November 18, 2005
http://www.europac.net/archives.asp?year=2005&qtr=4

Housing Speculation is More Rampant than You Think.
July 5, 2005
http://www.europac.net/archives.asp?year=2005&qtr=3

Still Not Convinced There's a Real Estate Bubble, Read This!
April 20, 2005
http://www.europac.net/archives.asp?year=2005&qtr=2

Housing Bulls Inadvertently Support the Bearish Case
December 13, 2004
http://www.europac.net/archives.asp?year=2004&qtr=4

The New Way to Rent a House
October 14, 2004
http://www.europac.net/archives.asp?year=2004&qtr=4 

N.Y. Fed sees no evidence of a housing bubble. Are they blind?
Wednesday, June 23, 2004
http://www.europac.net/archives.asp?year=2004&qtr=2

Job Growth Built on Highly Mortgaged House of Cards
Friday, June 4, 2004
http://www.europac.net/archives.asp?year=2004&qtr=2

In Arm's Way: The Tender Trap of Adjustable Rate Mortgages.
Friday, May 7, 2004
http://www.europac.net/archives.asp?year=2004&qtr=2

Higher mortgage rates equal lower home prices
Thursday, August 14, 2003 
 http://www.europac.net/archives.asp?year=2003&qtr=3#

@ 2006 Peter Schiff
Editorial Archive

Be a patriot. Protect your wealth and preserve you purchasing power before it`s too late. Discover the best way to buy gold at www.goldyoucanfold.com , download my free research report on the powerful case for investing in foreign equities available at www.researchreportone.com , and subscribe to my free, on-line investment newsletter at http://www.europac.net/newsletter/newsletter.asp

TED BUTLER COMMENTARY
August 21, 2006
First Nickel, Then Silver?

(This essay was written by silver analyst Theodore butler, an independent consultant. Investment Rarities does not necessarily endorse these views, which may or may not prove to be correct.)

This past week, the investment world witnessed an event that has only occurred rarely in the past. I am referring to the extraordinary developments in the nickel market on the London Metals Exchange (LME), the largest base metals exchange in the world. Due to an unprecedented scarcity of metal, the LME was forced to revise the delivery terms of its nickel contracts. In return for allowing short sellers to delay delivery of metal, a daily penalty fee of around 1% of the contract value was payable by the shorts to long holders.

Here are some excerpts from the LME`s press release of August 16

"Those with short positions in nickel falling prompt on Friday 18 August 2006, and on subsequent prompt dates until further notice, who are unable to effect physical delivery an/or unable to borrow metal at a backwardation of no more than $300.00 per tone per day, shall be able to defer delivery for a day at a penalty of $300.00 per tone. Those with long positions for prompt on those days who are subject to deferred delivery shall be entitled to compensation of $300.00 per tone per day

Commenting on the announcement, Simon Heale, LME Chief Executive said:

"Nickel stocks are at historically low levels and we now have a genuine material shortage. Our first priority is to ensure that trading remains orderly and to prevent the risk of settlement defaults."

Although there has been widespread reporting of this event in all the popular media and news services, I have been thunderstruck by how mostly all of the reports have danced around the key fact at the heart of this matter. That key fact is that the LME just declared that its nickel contract has gone into default.

While Mr. Heale states that the action by the exchange is designed to prevent default, the action taken is nothing but a declaration of default, rendering his statement as absurd. Default is a simple word. Any time you unilaterally violate or negate the terms and conditions of any legal contract, that contract is in default. Period.

Moreover, a simple analysis of the situation reveals that the LME is aligning itself with the interests of the naked shorts in nickel, as common sense should tell you that no long holder asked the exchange to suspend the delivery obligation of the shorts.

I must say that it is troubling that with such widespread reporting of this event, the most important fact, the delivery default, seemed lost as a message. But make no mistake; this default is a most serious matter. In fact, as I have written previously, a contract default is the absolute worst event that could befall any exchange. In an instant, a delivery default renders an exchange suspect as an institution. It makes no difference if that exchange has existed for hundreds of years, a delivery default can immediately destroy the strongest reputation. This is the grave risk that the nickel debacle poses to the LME.

The main concern for the nickel market and the LME is that the abrogation of the shorts` delivery obligation is not the end of problem, even though it may lead to the end of the LME itself. That is because legitimate long contract holders, particularly industrial consumers, have been left in a lurch by the deferral of delivery of actual metal. What do the industrial nickel users now do?

The legitimacy of any exchange or contract is based upon all conditions and obligations being upheld and not suspended when it is expedient to certain interests. In the case of a futures or forward contract on a physical commodity, the most important conditions and obligations are those which guarantee and mandate how the contract is converted to actual delivery.

Although only a very small percentage of any futures contract normally results in actual delivery of the physical commodity, it is precisely the delivery mechanism that determines the legitimacy of the contract. Take away that delivery mechanism and you take away the legitimacy. Take away the delivery mechanism and all you have left is paper contract with no connection to the commodity involved. This is what has happened to the LME nickel contract because the exchange has suspended the shorts` responsibility to deliver actual metal, that contract has become, essentially, worthless to industrial consumers.

The key point here is not that every contract created between a long and a short will result in actual delivery, but that every contract will result in delivery if either party wants it to. Each party to a contract, the long and the short, entered into that contract voluntarily. No one held a gun to anyone`s head, forcing them to buy or sell any contract. It is unfair and illegal that any authority (the LME) intercedes on behalf of either side to override a contract that was entered into voluntarily.

What the LME has done in nickel is relieving the shorts of having to round up actual metal to deliver against their contractual promise to deliver, and unilaterally transferred the obligation to the longs, the industrial user. These industrial consumer longs (and other longs) entered into their nickel contracts voluntarily and legally, with the option of taking delivery. Now they are told, with no warning, they can`t take delivery and must secure metal elsewhere. The shorts don`t have to scramble for material they promised to deliver; the longs have to scramble for material they were legally promised to receive. Nothing could be more unfair.

Furthermore, as long as the shorts` obligation to deliver nickel is suspended, there is no good reason for an industrial user to buy an LME contract. This is the greatest threat to the LME. And it`s not just deterrence for those buyers who want to take actual delivery. With the delivery mechanism destroyed in nickel, the linkage between the price of real metal and the LME contract is also destroyed. Without the requirement for delivery, the price of nickel on an LME contract and nickel in the real world loses its connection. In this case, the price of LME nickel is merely a figment of anyone`s imagination. What good does it do an industrial consumer to hedge on the LME, if there is no assurance his contract will converge with the price of actual metal on the delivery due date? Without the delivery mechanism, there is no linkage between paper contract and actual metal.

This is the real meaning of the Lime`s delivery default. It is also the same thing with the short-side manipulation in COMEX silver. It is a coincidence that this LME nickel disaster has occurred precisely at the same time others and I have been alleging a manipulation in COMEX silver. However, nothing could prove our case more clearly.

A long-side manipulation, evidenced by a concentrated long position and prices higher than would be without the concentrated position, is something the regulators have vast experience in dealing with. While disruptive and illegal, long-side manipulations are usually short in duration and easy to terminate. The concentrated longs, usually speculators, are forced to sell their positions, causing prices to collapse and end the manipulation.

A short-side manipulation, like those in LME nickel and COMEX silver, is evidenced by a concentrated short position and prices lower than would be without the concentrated short position. (The concentrated short position in nickel has been reported in news stories, while the concentrated short position in COMEX silver is reported by the CFTC). The regulators have little or no experience with short side manipulations, and since the concentrated shorts are industry insiders, rather than outside speculators, there is little incentive for the regulators to move against their own.

The real problem with short-side manipulations is that it is very difficult to terminate without great damage because they have a long duration. When a short-side manipulation is terminated, like in LME nickel, it threatens great and lasting disruption to the actual market because the resultant shortage of material causes real hardship with no easy remedy. This is in addition to the damage caused to an exchange or contract involved in such a short-side manipulation, which ends in a delivery default.

Clearly, the UK regulators and LME officials waited too long to attack and resolve the short-side manipulation in nickel. If they had acted responsibly and forced the concentrated shorts to cease their manipulative activities, the delivery default might have been averted. Now it is too late in nickel, as the damage is done. Is it too late for silver?

I think there may still be time for the US regulators to act in silver and avoid a COMEX silver delivery default. But I also have my doubts. That`s because the CFTC and NYMEX/COMEX officials have been dragging their feet on the issue of the concentrated short position. Instead of promptly responding to allegations of manipulation and a looming delivery default, the regulators are stalling. Stalling didn`t benefit the regulators in LME nickel. It only made matters much worse.

In fact, the main, if not only, difference between nickel and silver is that the regulators will never be able to say they were not warned in silver. And if the regulators in silver still do not see how the recent events in LME nickel are directly foretelling what is going to happen in COMEX silver, then they do not deserve to be regulators any longer.

While I will continue to attempt to end the silver manipulation (with your help), it is entirely possible that government regulators and COMEX officials will continue to evade their legal responsibilities and allow the silver manipulation to exist, right up to the inevitable delivery default. That will be tragic, but it will be on their heads.

Fortunately, there is something else that you can do. You can take the debacle in LME nickel as yet another confirmation as what will happen in silver and position yourself accordingly. If there has ever been an exclamation point given to "buy and hold real silver", it has been given to you by the LME actions in nickel. If an exchange that has been in existence for hundreds of years can suddenly terminate delivery obligations in its contracts, how hard do you think it will be for those issuing pool and leveraged accounts in silver to do exactly the same thing? I think anyone holding such accounts needs to have their heads examined.

But the strongest message of the LME default is being sent to the silver industrial consumers of the world, because the biggest potential losers in nickel are the industrial users. If the LME can get away with suspending delivery requirements in nickel, how hard will it be for the COMEX to suspend delivery requirements in silver? Do you think the CFTC will come to your defense? The same CFTC that is stalling on the concentrated short issue in silver? Even more than those investors and speculators dealing in paper contracts, any user who is not stockpiling real silver inventories, in light of what just occurred on the LME, are missing the boat.

I hope the CFTC and the NYMEX does the right thing with this concentrated silver short position and moves against the manipulators. But even if they don`t, there is no good reason for investors and industrial users to not protect themselves and buy real silver. How many wake-up calls are necessary?

The following essay was reprinted with permission from James Cook of Investment Rarities. More excellent essays can be found at www.investmentrarities.com.

Mark your calendar for FINANCIAL VORTEX!

The 2^nd annual Financial Vortex is coming December 2^nd! People are still talking about last year`s Vortex. For those that didn`t attend the 1^st annual Financial Vortex (March 2005. available on CD), it was indeed a star-studded line-up of top financial pros. Here are some highlights from that ground-breaking event:

• People were warned about the housing bubble months before it popped
• Profitable forecasts of the Commodities & energy bull market
• Gold & silver predictions made folks a lot of money
• Warnings to avoid cyclical stocks such as GM
• Continued weakness in the US Dollar
• Yes and the proverbial "much more".

Those attendees that heeded the great insights of our speakers made great money. When you have speakers like Murray Sabrin, Noel Jameson, Paul Mampilly, Charlie Nedoss and David Corsi, you have a wealth-building conference that is second to none. But here is the GREAT NEWS!!! .

The Second annual Financial Vortex will be better than ever. Many of last year`s outstanding speakers will be returning with fresh wealth-building insights to guide you in 2007 and beyond. There will be exciting surprises unveiled (more details in due course). The best change coming is that this year`s conference will be a full weekend! The Financial Vortex will be on Saturday December 2^nd while the following day Sunday December 3^rd will be BUSINESS VORTEX!

That weekend will be a great one-two punch. On Saturday you will learn how to invest your money; On Sunday you will learn how to make money. One is about passive wealth-building while the other is about active wealth-building. Isn`t that the best way to build wealth? When you and your money both earn more money? I definitely think so.

More details will be coming in the coming weeks and months. It will be a sensational weekend! For now. All you need to do is to reserve one (hopefully both!) of those days. The hotel room will only be able to accommodate about 100 people so we`re not kidding when we say "seating is limited". You`ll be able to reserve your place at this powerful event as early as September 2005. Stay tuned

 
Regards,
Paul Mladjenovic
201-585-0239
paul@mladjenovic.com
 

PS: I am not finished with all the details of the event so feel free to give me some suggestions so that I can make it as valuable as possible for you. Thank you!

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0764599038/qid=1138517977/sr=1-1/ref=sr_1_1/104-9137451-8175124?s=books&v=glance&n=283155

A new e-commerce web portal www.SuperMoneyLinks.com was developed by the great professionals at www.NexWEB.com. They are a top-notch team that I have joined forces with to bring Mladjenovic content to the web.

For those of you that need excellent point and click Internet services, please contact them directly through their website at www.NexWEB.com.
Tell them Paul sent ya!

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Thank you for reading this issue of the Prosperity Alert. Feel free to pass this along to others (unchanged, of course) or encourage them to get their own free subscription at www.SuperMoneyLinks.com. The next issue will be in your email inbox sooner than you think.

Regards,

Paul Mladjenovic
Email: paul@mladjenovic.com
Tel: 201-585-0239